Democratic Blues

Midterm history for first-term presidents. As Meet the Press-host David Gregory put it on Sunday:

“It’s mostly pretty bleak for a president in power.”

According to Nate Silver’s (Five Thirty Eight) latest House forecast (September 9), Democrats will loose more seats in November than the party in power did in 1978 and 1982 combined, but less than the Democrats did in 1994: 45,3 seats.

Republicans have a 2/3 chance of gaining a majority in the House come November.

Odds are Rep. John Boehner (R-OH) will be the new Speaker of the House. But it’s a long time between now and November, and 99 House seats are still in play.

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